Sunday, September 17, 2017

Special Situations ideas for the week of 17 September 2017

If you need a full analysis/detailed write-up, please email on kedar@kedarcap.com . I will NOT respond to anonymous emails.

Shorting at $65.00 (43.9% upside) over 1 to 2 year investment horizon. BBY offers an attractive risk-return profile for an investor willing to wait before taking a short position. In spite of fundamental challenges to its business, an extra week of holiday sales, coupled with major share buybacks and short term margin improvement, are likely to push shares into making another year end high. Despite the recent sell off, BBY trades at a historical high multiple of 6x EBITDA and a forward P/E of close to 13x. This echo’s of a company whose investors expect it to continue to beat expectations – a sentiment I do not share. On the contrary, not so palatable results might be in the cards, as the tailwinds from ‘Renew Blue’ disappear, while BBY is simultaneously expected to make major reinvestments to find new growth opportunities, replace older revenue and capture more dollars per customer. The likely results? Top line growth, profit margins and cash flow will come under pressure resulting in a definite price correction. 

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