Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Special Situation Ideas for week of 29-Oct-2013

CSG Systems International (CSGS): The Company enjoys a 2.8% dividend yield, with cash on the balance sheet of 190m and debt of 270m. The company is a Provider of customer care and billing solutions to firms such as AT&T, Comcast and DISH among others. Maybe a potential takeover target in the medium future. Worth a look.

Consolidated Water Co.(CWCO): Leading developer of 14 desalination plants in Caribbean and coastal regions. With the current general theme of water scarcity and the need for drinking water, globally, this might be a good play on water infrastructure, especially given the geographical location of CWCO’s plants. The firm has negligible debt on the balance sheet, has cahs with good operation and profit margin.

SandRidge Energy(SD): TPG-Axon launched a proxy fight with SD. It won several seats on the board, and ousted the CEO in June. TPG is SD’s second-largest holder. Mount Kellett Capital that specializes in energy, also owns more than 5% and having more bullish view of natural-gas thinks SD could be worth $15 a share, while Leon Cooperman thinks its about $11 or so. He bought the shares in the $5-to-$6 range. Why is SD so attractive? It is because the New management is upgrading the company's drilling prospects, drilling more productively, and reducing operating costs. There is a large short position in the stock, but Wall Street's view is likely to grow more positive. A buyer eventually could emerge.              

Walgreen (WAG): Walgreen, which has been operating Walgreens drugstores in the U.S. since 1901, is applying its alchemist's skills to its business model, transforming itself into a global drugstore chain with a massive distribution network that will position it for strong growth in its second century. With a 19% market share, Walgreen (WAG) is the second-largest U.S. drug retailer, behind CVS Caremark (CVS), which has 21%. WAG aims to lift sales, enhance its drug-purchasing clout, slash costs, and boost earnings and margins through partnerships with Alliance Boots, the closely held drug chain based in Switzerland, and AmerisourceBergen (ABC), a giant drug wholesaler based in Valley Forge, Pa. A greatly increased distribution system should help WAG cut costs, boost margins, and maintain competitive pricing, should also benefit from macroeconomic developments, such as the adoption of the Affordable Care Act; prescription volume should rise further as the baby boomers age: The number of Americans aged 65 or older is growing three times as fast as the overall population. Investors have warmed upto to Alliance Boots transaction. By FY16, WAG projects, the Alliance linkup will generate USD 130bn in combined revenue creating world's largest pharmacy, handling 10% of global volume. Shares at 14x earnings multiple at $5 gives as $70 and $5.50 or $5.75 a share in FY16, in which case its stock could hit $77 to $80. Another huge plus is the presence of Stefano Pessina, Exe Chair of Alliance Boots known for integrating companies. He now owns 8% of WAG and might own 20% if WAG buys rest of Alliance Boots. The 10-year distribution pact with drug wholesaler AmerisourceBergen to supply branded and generic products, launched last month, should also enhance pricing and margins, as it gives the company three times the buying power. Under the pact, Walgreen and Alliance Boots can purchase up to 7% of AmerisourceBergen in the open market. The two were also granted warrants that, if exercised, could lead to a 23% stake.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): The Company was known as Alpha Industries years ago, and made microwave products for the defense industry; now makes radio-frequency chips in concert with Qualcomm (QCOM) of Apple and Samsung phones. A good play on the growth of mobile communications. Minus excess cash, SWKS sells for 9x FY14 expected earnings. Revenue is growing by double digits.

ImmunoGen (IMGN): The company develops targeted anti cancer therapeutics using the technology it calls "Targeted antibody payload". IMGN licenses its technology to Biogen Idec, Sanofi, Amgen, Novartis and Roche. TAP is a simple MaB that carries its lethal payload of anti-cancer drugs to its target site and the drugs are more effective and cause fewer side effects. The company is cash heavy, with $194m in cash and zero in debt. With the current interest in cancer therapy and the fact that larger Pharma companies are looking for technologies, the company might end up being a takeover target over a year or more.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Special Situation Ideas for week of 20-Oct-2013

Those looking into some catalyst might want to ponder over these names for the week. I have done research on few of them, the other I have read online on Barron’s and other publications.  These are def. is worth a serious look.

Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC) Shares of the 57-year-old company that  dominates its niche, bonding machinery that's used to provide electrical connections between semiconductors and circuit boards using superfine gold and copper wires. KLIC has 70% of the market for equipment used to bond electrical circuits to circuit boards.It trades around $12, giving it a market value of about $900 mn. It finished the June quarter with $508mn in cash, or about $6.65 a share. This is a company that looks ripe for an activist investor. The profitable and low-profile maker of semiconductor capital equipment is sitting on cash equal to more than half its market value, but refuses to pay a dividend or repurchase stock. The core reason that management hasn't initiated a buyback or a dividend is to maintain optionality on diversification. Nearly all of its customers are in Asia, where the bulk of the world's chips are produced. The knock on KLIC is that it's in a mediocre, economically sensitive business threatened by technology changes. But at  around $12, Kulicke & Soffa looks cheap. Subtract $6.65 in cash per share, and the forward P/E is 3x, according to industry estimates. Pennsylvania law makes it difficult for a hostile takeover, but activists generally seek to influence rather than buy companies. With most stock indexes at or near record levels, it's hard to find a company with the combination of Kulicke's cash holdings and earnings power. It should be said that about 80% of KLIC's cash is overseas. If repatriated under current rules, the cash would be subject to taxes that could reduce Kulicke's net cash position to about $5 a share from $6.65 a share—still a large amount.

Athlon Energy (ATHL) is Forth Worth, Texas-based independent oil and gas explorer has only been operating since 2011 and went public in August, 2013. It currently holds nearly 100,000 net acres with an average working interest of 93% in the area the Permian Basin. It lies in western Texas and stretches across into southeast New Mexico, is having an oil exploration and production rebirth. The basin has one of the world's thickest deposits of rocks from the Permian geologic period. ATHL's horizontal drilling technology offers incremental opportunities on the same acreage. ATHL dipped its toes into horizontal drilling in August. It plans to drill four horizontal wells by the end of the year in addition to seven vertical rigs that it will be running this year. Industry analysts say that by adding horizontal drilling, a company can recover 10 times as much oil as it does with vertical wells. But while a vertical well can cost approximately $2mn, the cost of a horizontal well can range closer to $6mn to $8 mn.

Management stated that the $554mn in liquidity raised at its IPO will be used for future drilling activity. From each vertical well, a company can produce about 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) over the life of the well , in comparison, a horizontal well's lifetime production can be as high as 600,000 to 700,000 BOE. A third of ATHL's 2014 production growth to come from horizontal drilling. About 65% of Athlon stock is owned by the private equity firm Apollo Global Management (APO). Management is considered strong with a solid financial background.
Prior to Athlon's formation, CEO Reeves, a certified public accountant, served as CFO at Encore Energy Partners (ENP). Before joining ATHL in 2013, CFO William Butler was a managing director at the investment banking firm Stephens, and before that he was treasurer at XTO Energy, which later became a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil (XOM). Athlon also has solid hedges in place for the price of oil, at more than $92 per barrel of oil for 2013 and 2014. For the second half of 2013, oil hedging represents 92% of 2013 and 84% of 2014 estimated production. ATHL has the right real estate at the right place in the Permian where companies are moving from vertical drilling to horizontal drilling

Targa Resources: This is a midstream energy company and process oil and gas. Targa is growing EBITDA 20% to 25% a year for the next several years, and the overall U.S. energy industry is growing roughly 10% to 12% a year. Growth is disproportionately faster near shale regions. Targa has near on of the basins- assets in the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale, or the Marcellus Shale. This company can organically delever its balance sheet through FCF. Net debt/ Ebitda  under 5x which is expected to be 3.7x in 2 yrs. Become an investment grade firm in 2yrs and market not pricing that upgrade. Currently yielding 5%. Growth profile of this company is phenomenal. Investors can also own Targa bond that matures in November 2023, with a coupon as 4.25%.                                                  

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Special Situation Ideas for week of 7-Oct-2013

Those looking into some catalyst might want to ponder over these names for the week. I have done research on few of them, the other I have read online on Barron’s and other publications.  These are def. is worth a serious look.

Penn National Gaming (PENN): Penn will split on Nov. 1 into a real-estate investment trust called Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI), and an operating company that will lease properties from the REIT. By Jan-14, PENN holder will receive a total of 1.35 G&LP shares and a special $3.33 cash dividend, plus more from the REIT.  The operating company could be valued at 8x this year's estimated cash flow of $1.95 a share, or $15.60 a share, while G&LP could command as much as 13.8x estimated cash flow of $2.93, or $54. Add the special dividend, and the parts could be worth north of $70 a share, or 30% more than the current stock price. Another growth factor might be the consolidation of the regional gaming industry, whose markets have been suffering. PENN management has said it received many expressions of interest from potential sellers. The U.S. has more than 100 privately owned gaming operations, many run by aging owners who might want to cash out. PENN CEO Peter Carlino, owns a 14.5% stake. One thorny issue for Penn and G&LP is excess capacity in regional gaming. It the top of the market in 2007, Carlino arranged to sell Penn to a consortium led by Fortress Investment group. The deal fell apart, but Fortress kept some shares and Penn got some cash, which it used to buy a distressed M Resort in Henderson, Nev. When the split is completed, the Carlino family will own just under 10% of the operating company and a higher percentage of the REIT; and Fortress, 9.9% of each entity.

PICO Holdings (PICO): own a water-resources company, a West Coast home builder, and a canola-seed crushing company.  PICO seeks out undervalued assets. Over the years, it has evolved from an insurance business into a company with three core divisions. Vidler is PICO's largest division, accounting for 45% of book, as of June 30. UCP contributes 26%, and its 88% interest in Northstar, 13%.
Its assets, which are leveraged to the housing recovery and the growing demand for water in the Southwest, could be worth much more than the market is giving them credit for.  Industry estimates the stock could be worth about 50% to 75% more.
Of all the divisions, Vidler could hold the most potential. Much of the division's water rights are located in states where there are water shortages, like Nevada and Arizona. The Southwest is seeing its population grow faster than the national average. As housing recovers, home builders will need to secure water for their properties. Municipalities also buy water rights. In February PICO entered into an option agreement with Lincoln County water district in Nevada to sell 7,000 acre-feet of water rights for $12,000 per acre-foot, well above the company's cost. PICO acquired the developer in 2008, and throughout the downturn it bought up residential lots at bargain prices in hard-hit markets like Central Valley and Monterey Bay, Calif. Meanwhile, the Northstar canola refinery is poised for growth. The operation could benefit from rising consumption of canola in the U.S. Canola oil's lower fat content compared with other oils has made it attractive to health-conscious consumers. PICO can be valued at $30 -$35 a share. Additionally, CEO has 838,000 options with an exercise price of $33.76. The options expire in December 2015. 

NCR (ticker: NCR):  The stock has since surged more than 77%, however hedge fund Marcato Capital Management sees the potential for a 50% rise in the next year.
NCR is riding a number of growth waves that have taken annual revenue from $5.3 bn in 2011 to an expected $6.3bn in FY13. Its primary business is ATM’s which have benefited from the upgrades in technology by U.S. banks to permit ATMs to optically scan checks tendered by customers for deposit. NCR also has a major presence abroad and will benefit from major rollouts of ATM systems in emerging nations like China. It now gets 50% of its revenue from overseas. NCR is also at the forefront of the movement toward self-checkout equipment, having signed a large contract with Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). This has revived growth in its point-of-sale business. Airlines now operate kiosks that sell and issue tickets to passengers, and restaurants, bars, and movie theatres are all employing NCR equipment to help manage electronic sales via credit cards and other payment systems. NCR is expected to earn $3.10 a share in FY14 on revenue of $6.7bn. With a P/E 15x, that would justify a stock price of over $63.

Genworth Financial (GNW): GNW’s mortgage unit could benefit, as the Federal Housing Administration ceded market share to private entities in providing mortgage insurance. The FHA has significantly raised prices in the interim, giving Genworth and rivals like Radian Group (RDN) a chance to firm their pricing and possibly gain share. FHA once had a 74% share of this market, which has since dropped to 64% and is projected to fall toward 60% by year end. GNW, the No. 4 insurer, has maintained a 13% share. GNW EPS is projected to rise to $1.12 this year from 81 cents a year ago. Revenue is down to $9.5bn this year from $10bn last year. Shares can be priced at $20
HD Supply Holdings: Former Unit of Home Depot. Carlyle, Bain and Clayton own 19% each. HD owns another 9%. Post IPO, none of PE have sold their shares, which are at purchase price that is approx. $20 a share. NEED TO LOOK AT HOW DEBT IS BEING PAID DOWN. maturieis are for 2017, 2019 and 2020. Also benefitting from tax losses. Stock can go to approx. 42% in 2/3 years.                 

Infinera (INFN): Growing demand for data, leading to growing demand for optical network equipment and infrastrcuture leaders. The company is betting on its new Photonic integrated circuit (PIC), used inside optical transport platforms. it has the worlds only commercially deployed large scale PIC, which it believes is a game changer for its cost scalability and speed. Worhtwhile company to look into for medium term investors.

Personal Note: I have sold my HES CALLS expiring in Jan-14 at 40% profit. I still hold BWLD puts expiring March 2014.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Leidos - A New Spin-Off To Play The CyberIntel And Healthcare Sectors

I have posted an article on Seeking Alpha which goes into details about how to profit from going long Leidos International (LDOS). It’s for medium to long term investors.

If anyone reading do invest in special situations, this might make a good read. Either you can click here or go to Seeking Alpha and check out "Kedar special situations" Its under long ideas for Leidos International (LDOS).  

If you are unable to access it tonight (since the article was exclusively published early morning for Seeking Alpha – Rich subscriber base), you should be able to access it tomorrow after 11am.

Personal Note: I sold my HES calls expiring in Jan-14 at a 40% gain and I am long BWLD puts, expiring March-14.

Thank you